Compares government bonds on "ability and willingness to pay". The reward is the real yield (10-year yield minus expected inflation); the risk is a class-weighted blend of ten fiscal, macroeconomic and institutional indicators. Agency ratings are not part of the score; they ride along as a cross-check. Sorted by risk-reward: the top rows are the best-paid risk.
Country | Class | Real Yield | Nominal Yield | Exp. Inflation | Fundamental Risk | Risk-Reward | Implied PD | Historical PD | Default Gap | Agency Gap | Market View | Notch | S&P | Moody's | Fitch | Add to portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic | EM | 2.77% | 4.91% | 2.1% | 43 | +40 | 30% | 1% | +29 | -18 | Cheap | 4.0 | AA- | Aa3 | AA- | |
| New Zealand | DM | 2.63% | 4.71% | 2.1% | 40 | +39 | 7% | 1% | +6 | -3 | Cheap | 1.7 | AA+ | Aaa | AA+ | |
| Norway | DM | 2.13% | 4.29% | 2.2% | 24 | +31 | 7% | 1% | +6 | +3 | Cheap | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| United Kingdom | DM | 2.91% | 4.99% | 2.1% | 61 | +28 | 10% | 1% | +9 | +17 | Cheap | 3.7 | AA | Aa3 | AA- | |
| Mexico | EM | 6.08% | 9.16% | 3.1% | 73 | +27 | 35% | 6% | +29 | +5 | Cheap | 9.3 | BBB | Baa2 | BBB- | |
| Australia | DM | 2.37% | 5.01% | 2.6% | 43 | +26 | 7% | 1% | +6 | +27 | Cheap | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| South Korea | DM | 2.31% | 4.29% | 2.0% | 42 | +20 | 10% | 1% | +9 | -13 | Cheap | 3.3 | AA | Aa2 | AA- | |
| United States | DM | 3.06% | 5.24% | 2.2% | 75 | +19 | 7% | 1% | +6 | +63 | Cheap | 2.0 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA+ | |
| Romania | EM | 3.13% | 6.43% | 3.3% | 81 | +15 | 35% | 6% | +29 | +2 | Fair | 10.0 | BBB- | Baa3 | BBB- | |
| India | EM | 2.78% | 6.78% | 4.0% | 71 | +15 | 35% | 6% | +29 | -10 | Fair | 9.7 | BBB | Baa3 | BBB- | |
| Chile | EM | 2.49% | 5.55% | 3.1% | 58 | +14 | 31% | 3% | +29 | -10 | Cheap | 6.3 | A | A2 | A- | |
| Poland | EM | 2.52% | 5.50% | 3.0% | 67 | +9 | 31% | 3% | +29 | +2 | Fair | 6.7 | A- | A2 | A- | |
| Ireland | EZ | 1.29% | 3.35% | 2.1% | 24 | +4 | 0% | 1% | -1 | -30 | Cheap | 3.0 | AA+ | Aa3 | AA | |
| Canada | DM | 1.65% | 3.67% | 2.0% | 41 | -0 | 7% | 1% | +6 | +3 | Fair | 1.3 | AAA | Aaa | AA+ | |
| Israel | DM | 1.91% | 3.93% | 2.0% | 55 | -3 | 11% | 3% | +9 | -22 | Fair | 6.7 | A | Baa1 | A | |
| France | EZ | 2.16% | 4.00% | 1.8% | 62 | -3 | 0% | 3% | -3 | +13 | Fair | 4.7 | A+ | Aa3 | A+ | |
| Hungary | EM | 2.34% | 5.46% | 3.1% | 73 | -7 | 35% | 6% | +29 | -8 | Rich | 10.0 | BBB- | Ba1 | BBB | |
| Sweden | DM | 0.94% | 3.02% | 2.1% | 23 | -13 | 7% | 1% | +6 | -3 | Fair | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Denmark | DM | 0.93% | 3.01% | 2.1% | 20 | -14 | 7% | 1% | +6 | -7 | Fair | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Spain | EZ | 1.47% | 3.63% | 2.2% | 46 | -15 | 0% | 3% | -3 | -22 | Fair | 6.0 | A+ | A3 | A | |
| Finland | EZ | 1.48% | 3.52% | 2.0% | 51 | -16 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +12 | Rich | 2.3 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA | |
| Italy | EZ | 1.85% | 3.99% | 2.1% | 65 | -17 | 0% | 6% | -6 | -7 | Rich | 8.3 | BBB+ | Baa2 | BBB+ | |
| Switzerland | DM | -0.17% | 0.47% | 0.6% | 18 | -18 | 7% | 1% | +6 | -10 | Rich | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Portugal | EZ | 1.26% | 3.44% | 2.2% | 44 | -20 | 0% | 3% | -3 | -25 | Rich | 6.0 | A+ | A3 | A | |
| Netherlands | EZ | 1.15% | 3.29% | 2.1% | 39 | -22 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +10 | Fair | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Greece | EZ | 1.57% | 3.87% | 2.3% | 62 | -24 | 0% | 6% | -6 | -18 | Rich | 9.3 | BBB | Baa3 | BBB | |
| Belgium | EZ | 1.78% | 3.76% | 2.0% | 72 | -27 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +32 | Rich | 4.0 | AA | Aa3 | A+ | |
| Japan | DM | 0.88% | 2.94% | 2.1% | 32 | -28 | 11% | 3% | +9 | -43 | Rich | 5.3 | A+ | A1 | A | |
| Austria | EZ | 1.21% | 3.41% | 2.2% | 55 | -34 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +15 | Rich | 2.3 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA | |
| Germany | EZ | 1.02% | 3.18% | 2.2% | 55 | -41 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +47 | Rich | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA |
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