Compares government bonds on "ability and willingness to pay". The reward is the real yield (10-year yield minus expected inflation); the risk is a class-weighted blend of ten fiscal, macroeconomic and institutional indicators. Agency ratings are not part of the score; they ride along as a cross-check. Sorted by risk-reward: the top rows are the best-paid risk.
Country | Class | Real Yield | Nominal Yield | Exp. Inflation | Fundamental Risk | Risk-Reward | Implied PD | Historical PD | Default Gap | Agency Gap | Market View | Notch | S&P | Moody's | Fitch | Add to portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic | EM | 2.30% | 4.74% | 2.4% | 43 | +50 | 28% | 1% | +27 | -22 | Cheap | 4.0 | AA- | Aa3 | AA- | |
| Denmark | DM | 1.19% | 2.89% | 1.7% | 14 | +34 | 6% | 1% | +5 | -10 | Cheap | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| South Korea | DM | 1.77% | 4.08% | 2.3% | 43 | +30 | 8% | 1% | +7 | -17 | Cheap | 3.3 | AA | Aa2 | AA- | |
| Mexico | EM | 5.32% | 9.45% | 4.1% | 76 | +24 | 33% | 6% | +27 | +8 | Cheap | 9.3 | BBB | Baa2 | BBB- | |
| India | EM | 3.22% | 7.02% | 3.8% | 73 | +24 | 33% | 6% | +27 | 0 | Cheap | 9.7 | BBB | Baa3 | BBB- | |
| New Zealand | DM | 1.75% | 4.68% | 2.9% | 46 | +23 | 6% | 1% | +5 | +13 | Cheap | 1.7 | AA+ | Aaa | AA+ | |
| Poland | EM | 2.24% | 5.74% | 3.5% | 68 | +21 | 30% | 3% | +27 | +8 | Cheap | 6.7 | A- | A2 | A- | |
| France | EZ | 2.07% | 3.74% | 1.7% | 65 | +21 | 6% | 3% | +4 | +17 | Cheap | 4.7 | A+ | Aa3 | A+ | |
| Ireland | EZ | 1.07% | 3.24% | 2.2% | 20 | +18 | 0% | 1% | -1 | -37 | Cheap | 3.0 | AA+ | Aa3 | AA | |
| Italy | EZ | 2.05% | 3.82% | 1.8% | 65 | +18 | 7% | 6% | +1 | -10 | Fair | 8.3 | BBB+ | Baa2 | BBB+ | |
| Australia | DM | 1.62% | 4.99% | 3.4% | 41 | +18 | 6% | 1% | +5 | +13 | Cheap | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Chile | EM | 1.80% | 5.46% | 3.7% | 59 | +17 | 30% | 3% | +27 | -10 | Fair | 6.3 | A | A2 | A- | |
| United Kingdom | DM | 1.91% | 4.94% | 3.0% | 63 | +17 | 8% | 1% | +7 | +20 | Fair | 3.7 | AA | Aa3 | AA- | |
| Norway | DM | 1.16% | 4.33% | 3.2% | 32 | +10 | 6% | 1% | +5 | +7 | Fair | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Sweden | DM | 0.71% | 2.74% | 2.0% | 23 | +8 | 6% | 1% | +5 | 0 | Fair | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Finland | EZ | 1.63% | 3.40% | 1.8% | 56 | +7 | 1% | 1% | -0 | +18 | Fair | 2.3 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA | |
| Canada | DM | 1.21% | 3.54% | 2.3% | 46 | +5 | 6% | 1% | +5 | +13 | Fair | 1.3 | AAA | Aaa | AA+ | |
| Hungary | EM | 1.68% | 5.65% | 4.0% | 71 | -5 | 33% | 6% | +27 | -8 | Fair | 10.0 | BBB- | Ba1 | BBB | |
| Portugal | EZ | 0.75% | 3.42% | 2.7% | 44 | -9 | 1% | 3% | -2 | -32 | Rich | 6.0 | A+ | A3 | A | |
| United States | DM | 1.52% | 4.49% | 3.0% | 66 | -10 | 6% | 1% | +5 | +47 | Fair | 2.0 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA+ | |
| Israel | DM | 1.18% | 3.98% | 2.8% | 56 | -11 | 10% | 3% | +7 | -18 | Fair | 6.7 | A | Baa1 | A | |
| Switzerland | DM | -0.16% | 0.44% | 0.6% | 22 | -18 | 6% | 1% | +5 | -3 | Rich | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Spain | EZ | 0.62% | 3.48% | 2.9% | 47 | -23 | 2% | 3% | -1 | -18 | Rich | 6.0 | A+ | A3 | A | |
| Netherlands | EZ | 0.18% | 3.15% | 3.0% | 34 | -23 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +10 | Rich | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Japan | DM | -0.05% | 2.65% | 2.7% | 30 | -24 | 10% | 3% | +7 | -47 | Rich | 5.3 | A+ | A1 | A | |
| Germany | EZ | 0.55% | 3.05% | 2.5% | 47 | -26 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +33 | Rich | 1.0 | AAA | Aaa | AAA | |
| Greece | EZ | 0.62% | 3.75% | 3.1% | 62 | -34 | 6% | 6% | +0 | -22 | Rich | 9.3 | BBB | Baa3 | BBB | |
| Austria | EZ | 0.30% | 3.30% | 3.0% | 52 | -35 | 0% | 1% | -1 | +15 | Rich | 2.3 | AA+ | Aa1 | AA | |
| Belgium | EZ | 0.23% | 3.60% | 3.4% | 66 | -53 | 4% | 1% | +3 | +28 | Rich | 4.0 | AA | Aa3 | A+ | |
| Romania | EM | -0.73% | 6.17% | 6.9% | 81 | -81 | 33% | 6% | +27 | +2 | Rich | 10.0 | BBB- | Baa3 | BBB- |
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